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简访美国中央情报局长约翰布伦南:中国很重要 川普应慎行
2017-01-11 13:38:18   来源:独家原创   作者:看见网特约记者 向杨   编辑:纪许光
美国应该集中精力应对朝鲜问题。这是川普和他的下一任安保团队真正需要全方位认真对待的事。这是一个多维盘棋。你在某个棋盘上走了一步,就会影响你在另一个棋盘上的局势。

简访美国中央情报局长约翰布伦南:中国很重要 川普应慎行

作者向杨,看见网特约记者;本文为独家新闻作品。未经看见网或作者授权,严禁部分或全部摘录、刊登。



核心提示:

  川普时代即将到来,这位“大嘴巴”总统的确不让人省心。


 他密会马云,共商中美中小企业发展。这无异是积极的信号。但是,中美之间,有些问题是绕不开的。比如:台湾问题、比如朝鲜核问题…;
中美关系,在美国中央情报局长眼里是个“多维棋局”。独家采访视频稍后呈现。看见网,不见不散。

作为中央情报局(CIA)的顶头大boss,约翰布伦南如何看待未来中美关系走向?台湾问题和朝鲜核问题会是中美关系的“梗”吗?

  继此前专访了美国CIA情报副局长后迈克莫雷尔之后,2017年1月5日,美国芝加哥大学i-house会议厅,看见网@羊说
采访美国中央情报局现任局长约翰布伦南(John Brennan),我们试图在一问一答中,窥见中美关系的未来。

 
seebadnews.com  YANG: Hi, my name's Yang. So Trump's China-bashing rhetoric often happens in his Twitter or his rallies. This doesn't make lots of Chinese worried. But one thing that makes the Chinese worried is [the] Taiwan issue. So from the vantage point of the CIA, is it possible that Trump will use Taiwan as leverage to push China to deal with North Korea? So how risky is it?
看见网@羊说:我是向杨。川普抨击中国的论调常常出现在他的推特或是竞选集会上,中国人并不担心这一点。让中国人真正担心的是台湾问题。那么,从CIA所掌握的情况来看,川普有没有可能会把台湾当作一根杠杆来撬动中国大陆,促使中方处理朝鲜核武器计划?这样做的风险有多大?(注:近年来,朝鲜不断研发导弹和核武器,国际社会对其采取了经济制裁。但有证据表明,中国在制裁期间却与朝鲜保持了经济往来。美国认为中国目前是唯一能够遏制朝鲜的国家。
 
BRENNAN: One of the things I like about the CIA is that we don't evaluate and assess what a president will do [LAUGHTER] with the United States. Clearly, the Chinese are very concerned about Taiwan and the recent phone call that President-Elect Trump had with the Taiwanese president. So they are watching that very carefully. Again, I anticipate that once the new administration comes in, they will make sure that they understand what the implications and consequences are of certain actions, as well as certain statements or things that the people say. It's amazing the power of the word of the president of the United States. When the president of the United States says something, it can have ramifications, reverberations world-wide, on the political front, on the economic front, on the military front. And so I am anticipating that the next administration will understand just how important it is that when they take an action or make a statement, that they need to think through what the second and third-order consequences are of it. That's what I think is one of the real attributes of President Obama, that he is someone who looks at issues and then will immediately try to understand, "Okay, if I make this chess move, what does it mean as far as the second and third steps and moves that either the United States can make, or what our adversaries or partners or allies will do?"
布伦南:CIA有一点让我非常喜欢,那就是我们不会评估和判断总统将要对美国做什么。[笑声] 显然,中国十分关注台湾,也关注最近候任总统川普和台湾总统的那通电话。中方对此密切关注。我还是认为,美国新一届领导班子上任后,他们将确保自己能够理解某些措施、某些言论所暗含的意义和可能的结果。美国总统的话,影响力如此之大,这一点令人惊讶。美国总统动动嘴皮,就可能在世界范围内激起一连串难以预料的反应。所以我期待下届政府能理解他们所采取的一项措施或所发表的一项声明具有多么重要的意义,他们需要认真考虑这一措施或声明之后的下一步和下下步要怎么做。我从奥巴马身上就看到了这一点。他就是那种看着问题了,然后就马上试着理解它的人。他会想:“如果我选择走这一步,那接下来美国或者美国的对手、伙伴或是同盟国会怎么走下一步和下下步?”
 
seebadnews.com  YANG: So it's very risky. [Laugh]
看见网@羊说:也就是说川普那么做很冒险。[笑声]
 
Professor Robert Pape (Moderator): So can I also ask you a question, to make an assessment for us about the future. So President-Elect Trump has at least, during the campaign, talked about withdrawing some important support from our allies—South Korea, Japan—and actually said things to encourage them to go their own way, maybe even to the point of nuclear weapons. What would those policies mean for North Korea?

会议主持罗伯特教授:我也有一个问题,想听听你对我们的未来怎么看。候任总统川普,至少他在竞选时是这么说的,就是要减少对韩国、日本等盟友的一些有力的支持,并且他还说鼓励这些国家走自己的路,可能甚至暗示让他们发展核武器。这样的政策对朝鲜来说意味着什么呢?
 
BRENNAN: It would mean a lot. I think we have to be very mindful that our relationship and our partnership with South Korea and Japan is crucial, that if they feel as though they can no longer count on the United States in order to protect them from some type of North Korean military adventurism or attack, they're going to pursue their own course that may not be ones that we want them to go forward. Last thing we need is for there to be a nuclear race in Northeast Asia. That's not going to be conducive to regional stability, global stability. And when we think about China, you know, we have North Korean issue, we have cyber-issues with China, we have South China Sea, we have trade issues, we have so many things. So the approach to China needs to take into account that it's multi-dimensional, but the North Korean dimension of it, I think, is one that is gonna be critically important for us to be able to focus on. And Tokyo and Seoul and others are going to be watching the United States and Washington very carefully, and the new administration, to detect changes that would lead them to then adopt different policies or take their own actions. And this is what President Trump and his next security team really need to have as full-on appreciation of, again, it's that multi-dimensional chessboard. You move the piece on one board, it really affects your positioning on another. So, and China is critically important in so many of these areas that I think this is what the next administration needs to recognize.
布伦南:可能有很多意味。我认为必须牢记,美国与韩国还有日本的伙伴关系至关重要。如果韩日两国认为它们不再指望美国能够保护它们免受朝鲜的军事冒险或打击,于是寻求自我(核武器)发展道路,我们也要看到,这些道路未必是美国希望他们选择的。我们最不想看到的就是东北亚地区搞核竞争。这对地区稳定、全球稳定都毫无益处。说起中国,美国和中国在很多问题上都有分歧,比如朝鲜问题、网络安全问题、南中国海问题、贸易问题等等。所以和中国打交道时,需要考虑其多维度的特征,而朝鲜这个维度,非常重要,我认为美国应该集中精力应对它。日本、韩国和其他国家都会密切地关注美国的动向,关注新一届政府,以便察觉变化根据这些变化适时采取不同的策略或措施。这绝对是川普总统和他的下一任安保团队真正需要全方位认真对待的事。还是那句话,这是一个多维盘棋。你在某个棋盘上走了一步,就会影响你在另一个棋盘上的局势。中国在诸多此类领域都至关重要,所以我认为下一届政府要三思而后行。

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